For 72 hours, the world held its breath as two nuclear-armed neighbours exchanged missile strikes, drone attacks, and aerial combat in what experts called the most dangerous military escalation on the subcontinent since the 1999 Kargil War.

A US-mediated ceasefire has held. But the situation remains deeply fragile.

The Trigger

The escalation began with a terrorist attack on a crowded tourist area in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 28 civilians including several foreign nationals. India blamed Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, a claim Pakistan denied.

The Military Exchange

  • Indian Air Force conducted strikes at 9 sites in Pakistan and PoK
  • Pakistan Air Force responded with strikes on three Indian forward airbases
  • Two PAF jets were shot down; India lost one aircraft (pilot ejected safely)
  • Both sides deployed loitering munitions extensively — the first large-scale drone combat between two South Asian militaries
  • No nuclear posturing was observed on either side

The Ceasefire

US Secretary of State and the UN Secretary-General both made calls in the crucial 48-hour window. UAE and Saudi Arabia also applied pressure.

The agreement:

  • Immediate halt to all military action across the Line of Control
  • Restoration of hotlines between DGMOs of both armies
  • Agreement to discuss terrorism through backchannel diplomatic talks

Where Things Stand

  • 100,000 civilians remain displaced from LoC villages in J&K
  • Pakistan’s currency fell 12% since the crisis began
  • India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty
  • The Kartarpur Corridor and Samjhauta Express remain suspended

South Asia is not at war. But it is not at peace either.